·4 min read
This Is What a Real Drawdown Looks Like
Gold is in a 14% drawdown from its peak—the second worst in the model's history. Here's what that means, why it feels worse than it looks, and what history tells us about trades like this.
Read →Articles
Insights on systematic investing, market regimes, and rules-based portfolio management.
·4 min read
Luck vs. Process: The Myth of the 'Lucky' Trader
Why chasing lucky trades leads to erratic results, while a systematic process compounds into lasting success.
Read →
·4 min read
The Role of Regimes: Trading the Environment, Not the Market
Why market conditions matter more than predictions.
Read →
·4 min read
AI, Noise, and the Discipline of Simplicity
As intelligence becomes abundant, clarity will become scarce. Why simple, rules-based frameworks matter more than ever.
Read →
·4 min read
Why Simple Systems Survive When Complex Ones Fail
And why robustness matters more than optimization.
Read →
·4 min read
Trading Is a Lot Like Working Out
Most people struggle with trading because they expect progress to be visible far too quickly. That's why a lot of people quit.
Read →
·6 min read
Why People Quit During Drawdowns (And How to Avoid It)
The problem isn't the drawdown. It's what your brain does during one.
Read →
·7 min read
Stress-Testing the Market Regime Model: Expectancy, Drawdowns, and What the Numbers Really Say
A deep dive into whether the Market Regime model's edge is durable or dependent on lucky trades and favorable timing.
Read →
·5 min read
History of the Market Regime Model - Conclusion
Summing up the Market Regime model performance over 15+ years: TQQQ-like returns with SPY-like drawdowns.
Read →
·8 min read
History of the Market Regime Model - Part 6 (2022-2025)
How the Market Regime model navigated the inflation peak, AI rally, and trade wars with +256% returns.
Read →
·5 min read
History of the Market Regime Model - Part 5 (2020-2022)
How the Market Regime model navigated the post-COVID melt-up and inflation shock with +160% returns.
Read →
·7 min read
History of the Market Regime Model - Part 4 (2018-2020)
How the Market Regime model navigated trade wars, the Q4 2018 crash, and the COVID pandemic with +121% returns.
Read →
·8 min read
History of the Market Regime Model - Part 3 (2015-2018)
How the Market Regime model navigated the China crash, Brexit, the 2017 melt-up, and Volmageddon with +121% returns.
Read →
·11 min read
History of the Market Regime Model - Part 2 (2012-2015)
How the Market Regime model navigated the Taper Tantrum, oil collapse, and topping process with +56% returns over 2.6 years.
Read →
·8 min read
History of the Market Regime Model - Part 1 (2010-2012)
How the Market Regime model navigated the Flash Crash, Eurozone crisis, and QE2 era with +219% returns over nearly three years.
Read →
·5 min read
How This Strategy Works — A Clear, Rules-Based Way to Stay Aligned with the Market
This strategy measures the market's current environment — specifically whether risk-on assets or risk-off assets are showing leadership — and aligns positioning accordingly.
Read →