This strategy measures the market's current environment — specifically whether risk-on assets or risk-off assets are showing leadership — and aligns positioning accordingly. Everything is rules-based, systematic, and objective.
At its core, the model compares the behavior of growth-oriented assets (tech, small caps) to defensive assets (utilities, gold, treasuries). When growth is strengthening relative to defense, the market environment is generally supportive for equities. When defensive assets take leadership, risk is rising. The strategy simply follows this rotation with no predictions, no opinions, and no discretionary overrides.
This is a swing-trading strategy, not a fast-paced trading system.
Historically:
- Regime changes occur 5–6 times per year on average
- Average position duration is 2–3 months
- Signals are infrequent, stable, and deliberate
It's slow, structured, and mechanical — the opposite of dopamine-driven trading.
When the Model Is Bullish
When the model signals a Bullish regime, I personally hold MNQ futures, which track the Nasdaq. Futures allow precise exposure sizing and controlled leverage, which fits my style.
But you don't need to trade futures. The instrument you choose depends entirely on your personal risk tolerance.
Option 1: MNQ Futures (High Risk, Customizable Leverage)
Best for traders who want:
- Fully adjustable leverage
- Tight control over sizing
- Futures-style execution and margin efficiency
This is how I personally trade the Bullish regime.
Option 2: TQQQ (High Risk, High Reward)
For traders who want:
- Amplified upside
- Equity-style trading rather than futures
- Faster compounding in strong bull trends
TQQQ behaves similarly to leveraged futures exposure.
Option 3: QQQ (Moderate Risk, Lower Volatility)
For traders who prefer:
- Smooth, clean price action
- Lower drawdowns during choppy regimes
- A calmer trading experience
The signal is identical — QQQ is simply the lower-volatility implementation.
When the Model Is Bearish
When the model turns Bearish, I hold MGC futures, providing leveraged gold exposure with flexible sizing. Again, this is based on my personal trading setup — not a requirement.
Option 1: MGC Futures — Precise Gold Exposure With Leverage
Best for traders who want:
- Flexible contract sizing
- Efficient margin use
- Full control over exposure
Option 2: GLD — Moderate Risk, Reliable Defense
A great defensive choice when:
- Volatility is rising
- Risk appetite is falling
- Capital is rotating out of growth
This closely mirrors the behavior of a non-leveraged gold position.
Option 3: Cash — Maximum Caution, Zero Drawdown
Cash is a perfectly valid Bearish position if you want:
- Zero downside during Bearish regimes
- Fully capped risk
- Simple, nerves-free execution
The strategy's goal in Bearish regimes is protection, and cash accomplishes that perfectly.
The Signal Is the Same — Only Your Risk Level Changes
Bullish → You choose MNQ, TQQQ, or QQQ
Bearish → You choose MGC, GLD, or Cash
The model defines what to own. You define how aggressively to express it.
Built for Full-Time Professionals and Busy Traders
Because signals change infrequently, this model is ideal for people with:
- Full-time jobs
- Businesses
- Families
- Limited screen time
A quick daily check is enough. Regime flips usually offer ample time to adjust positions — no rushing, no intraday urgency, no 50-tab trading setups.
This is one of the rare trading systems that fits into real life.
My Transparency as a Trader
I want to be clear about where I am in this process:
I have only recently begun trading this model in real time.
I'm not presenting a 10-year personal track record (yet). Instead, I'm documenting the journey from day one, openly and honestly, so subscribers can:
- Watch the model evolve
- See how it behaves in live markets
- Follow the signals exactly as I follow them
This newsletter is a real-time chronicle of a rules-based strategy being executed in the wild — with nothing hidden, nothing retrofitted, and no selective storytelling.
How This Strategy Was Born
For years, I traded emotionally:
- Chasing price
- Responding to headlines
- Abandoning plans
- Letting instincts override rules
This didn't fail because I lacked intelligence — it failed because I lacked structure.
The market punishes emotional trading. This model is the solution I built for myself: a framework that removes feelings from decisions and replaces them with consistent, transparent, data-driven signals.
This newsletter is my public accountability — and a way for you to follow a complete rules-based system in real time.
Pros and Cons
Pros
- Fully rules-based
- No predictions or opinions
- Signals are infrequent and easy to follow
- Only two possible positions (clarity)
- Great for full-time professionals
- Aligns naturally with major bull trends
- Moves defensively when risk rises
- Time-efficient: quick daily or weekly check-ins
Cons
- Not built for entertainment
- No individual stock picking
- Can feel slow during low-volatility regimes
- Requires discipline to follow during drawdowns
- Success comes from long cycles, not constant action
This newsletter isn't designed to be exciting. It's designed to help you make better decisions over the long run.
Why Subscribe?
As a subscriber, you get:
- Real-time regime flips
- My live trades and positioning
- Weekly updates to my personal track record trading this system
- Daily dashboards
- A fully transparent strategy executed in real time
If you want a calmer, more structured, data-driven way to navigate markets — without hype, noise, or prediction — this is built for you.
Subscribe now and follow the model from the ground up. One model. Two positions. Complete clarity.